Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

Traders currently price "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 77% for "Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?". Full distribution: Spider-Man: Brand New Day 77%, Avengers: Doomsday 24%, Toy Story 5 0%, Dune: Messiah 0%. The market has traded $63K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has anchored trader consensus at a 76.5% implied probability, as the Tom Holland-led Marvel title surpassed Avengers: Endgame’s long-standing benchmark with exceptional presales, walk-up business, and word-of-mouth in a low-competition summer slot. Avengers: Doomsday holds the next-highest share at 23.5% on the strength of massive early ticket sales ahead of its December 18 release, though analysts note the crowded holiday window with Dune: Messiah creates greater uncertainty for surpassing the July mark. Toy Story 5’s $160 million June debut set a franchise record but remains well below the current leader, while later 2026 entries like The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping face steeper hurdles to claim the top opening.

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