Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

Traders currently price "Tom Begich" at 98% for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?". Full distribution: Tom Begich 98%, Bernadette Wilson 94%, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 80%, Dave Bronson 54%. The market has traded $246K in total volume and resolves Aug 18, 2026. Alaska's August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary will send the highest vote-getters to a ranked-choice general election, following term limits on incumbent Mike Dunleavy. Seventeen candidates, mostly Republicans, create significant vote splitting on that side, while Democrat Tom Begich maintains a consistent polling lead around 17-21% due to name recognition and focus on education funding and fiscal issues. Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Click Bishop, and David Bronson trail in single digits but compete for the remaining advancement slots amid fragmented support. Recent fundraising disclosures, joint voter guides, and candidate debates have highlighted visibility gaps, with final positioning hinging on turnout and any last-minute endorsements before ballots close.

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