Who will be UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026?

Traders currently price "Petr Yan" at 55% for "Who will be UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.5 points. Full distribution: Petr Yan 55%, Merab Dvalishvili 32%, Umar Nurmagomedov 4%, David Martinez 2%. The market has traded $450K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Petr Yan holds the UFC bantamweight title after defeating Merab Dvalishvili via unanimous decision at UFC 323 in December 2025, establishing him as the clear market leader with implied probabilities around 54.5 percent for remaining champion through the end of 2026. This positioning reflects his recent form, experience in title bouts, and the division's typical emphasis on the current belt holder in long-term markets. Merab Dvalishvili sits second at 32.5 percent on the strength of his prior dominance, multiple 2025 defenses, and confirmed interest in an immediate rematch or trilogy fight slated for 2026. Umar Nurmagomedov trails at 3.5 percent amid strong contender momentum and an undefeated record, though he still requires additional victories to secure a title opportunity. Lower probabilities for fighters like Sean O'Malley, Cory Sandhagen, and others account for recent results, age factors, and the need to navigate a deep division before challenging Yan.

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