Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Traders currently price "Joshua Van" at 53% for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 4.0 points. Full distribution: Joshua Van 53%, Alexandre Pantoja 43%, Manel Kape 4%, Asu Almabayev 1%. The market has traded $1.2M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Joshua Van holds a slim lead in trader consensus as the projected UFC flyweight champion at year-end 2026 due to his youth, successful first title defense via fifth-round TKO over Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328 in May, and status as the division's current titleholder. Alexandre Pantoja remains a close second, driven by his established championship pedigree, recent medical clearance, and the scheduled rematch at UFC 331 on September 19. Manel Kape sits well behind after strong knockout wins but lacks an imminent title path. Other names like Asu Almabayev and Amir Albazi register minimal support amid limited recent activity or positioning. The tight Van-Pantoja split reflects uncertainty around the rematch outcome and any subsequent challengers in a division defined by speed, technique, and quick finishes.

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