Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Traders currently price "Justin Gaethje" at 85% for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?". Full distribution: Justin Gaethje 85%, Ilia Topuria 6%, Charles Oliveira 6%, Paddy Pimblett 4%. The market has traded $667K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Justin Gaethje captured the undisputed UFC lightweight title with a fourth-round corner stoppage over former champion Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 in June 2026, following his unanimous decision victory over Paddy Pimblett for the interim belt at UFC 324 in January. At age 37, Gaethje became the oldest fighter to claim the 155-pound crown, and the market reflects broad trader consensus that he will still hold the title when the year ends. Topuria’s loss sharply reduced his implied probability, while established contenders such as Charles Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan, and Pimblett remain on the periphery without imminent title opportunities. No lightweight title bout is scheduled before late 2026, and Gaethje has signaled plans to defend the belt, reinforcing his position as the clear frontrunner through the remainder of the year.

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