Who will Trump endorse?

Traders currently price "Ken Paxton - TX-Sen" at 100% for "Who will Trump endorse?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 70.2 points. Full distribution: Ken Paxton - TX-Sen 100%, Andy Barr - KY-Sen 100%, Steve Hilton - CA-Gov 100%, Susan Collins - ME-Sen 100%. The market has traded $244K in total volume and resolves Nov 4, 2026. Trump's endorsements in the 2026 Republican primaries have demonstrated strong influence, with endorsed candidates winning 97% of resolved races so far across congressional, state legislative, and executive contests. Recent developments include his May 2026 backing of Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Senate runoff, which shifted primary outcomes, alongside earlier announcements clearing fields in safer districts. Strategy has evolved toward preemptive support for incumbents and open seats months ahead of voting, as seen in Florida House races ahead of August primaries. Traders monitor Truth Social statements, rally appearances, and coordination with party committees for signals on undecided contests, where timing and candidate alignment with administration priorities remain key variables ahead of November general elections.

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