Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
- Ryan Salame
- 40%
- −5.0
- Daniel Penny
- 21%
- —
- Matt Gaetz
- 21%
- —
- Keonne Rodriguez
- 18%
- —
- Steve Bannon
- 17%
- —
- Stefan Brodie
- 16%
- −1.0
- Roger Stone
- 14%
- —
- Donald Brodie
- 14%
- −0.5
- Roger Ver
- 10%
- +1.0
- Eric Adams
- 9%
- +0.5
- Joe Exotic
- 9%
- —
- Bob Menendez
- 8%
- +1.3
- Nicolas Maduro
- 7%
- +1.1
- Martin Shkreli
- 6%
- —
- Julian Assange
- 6%
- —
- Diddy
- 6%
- +0.7
- Young Thug
- 6%
- —
- Himself
- 5%
- +0.8
- Derek Chauvin
- 5%
- —
- Edward Snowden
- 5%
- —
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- 4%
- —
- Elizabeth Holmes
- 4%
- —
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- 4%
- —
- Andrew Tate
- 4%
- —
- Hunter Biden
- 3%
- —
- Do Kwon
- 2%
- —
- Antoine Massey
- 2%
- —
- Elon Musk
- 2%
- —
Traders currently price "Ryan Salame" at 40% for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 5.0 points. Full distribution: Ryan Salame 40%, Daniel Penny 21%, Matt Gaetz 21%, Keonne Rodriguez 18%. The market has traded $419K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Trump's second-term clemency grants have already exceeded prior records, beginning with the January 20, 2025, mass pardon and commutations for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants alongside targeted actions for figures such as Ross Ulbricht. Subsequent batches through mid-2026 have favored politically connected individuals, white-collar offenders, and allies who bypassed standard DOJ review, including recent July 2026 grants and the June pardon of Stephen E. Buyer. This pattern reflects executive emphasis on loyalty and direct advocacy over traditional guidelines, with trader attention focused on remaining 2026 opportunities before the January 2027 cutoff. Scheduled considerations around high-profile cases or further batches could still shift probabilities for specific names.
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