Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Traders currently price "No" at 72% for "Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?". The market has traded $254K in total volume and resolves Sep 6, 2026. **Recent polling shows the AfD leading in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election but falling short of the consistent support needed for an absolute majority of seats.** Surveys from late July and early August 2026 place the AfD at 41–43 percent, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent, with the Left around 13 percent and smaller parties (SPD, Greens, FDP, BSW) clustered near or below the 5 percent threshold. With 83 seats in total and 42 required for a majority, AfD support at these levels can produce an outright majority only if multiple smaller parties fail to clear the threshold and their votes redistribute disproportionately. Latest results indicate the AfD remains just short or hovers near the line in most scenarios, creating meaningful uncertainty over the final seat distribution. Other parties continue to maintain a political firewall against cooperation with the AfD, reinforcing that an absolute majority is the only path to sole governance. This combination of polling stability near 41–43 percent and threshold volatility underpins the market’s current 71.5 percent implied probability against an AfD absolute majority.

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