Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 92% for "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?". The market has traded $160K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, 2026, after 59 years, marked the most significant recent exit, driven by national production priorities and differing views on quotas from larger members like Saudi Arabia. Since then, no other country has announced withdrawal plans. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait, have continued joint statements reaffirming production discipline and market stability through mid-2026 meetings, with no reported quota disputes or formal exits. Historical precedents show departures are infrequent and typically tied to specific investment or pricing conflicts, as seen with Angola in 2024. With over four months left in the year and sustained OPEC+ coordination, trader consensus at 91.5% against another exit reflects limited near-term momentum for further departures.

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