Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 84% for "Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. The market has traded $340K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 0-2 major hurricanes amid a developing El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below historical norms. These conditions sharply reduce the chance of a Category 4 system (130+ mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30. Updated model runs and early-season observations reinforce trader consensus favoring the 84% implied probability of no such event.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.