Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 88% for "Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. The market has traded $139K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. NOAA’s updated August outlook for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season drives the strong market-implied odds against any U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Forecasters now assign a 75% chance of below-normal activity, projecting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November. Weak La Niña conditions and elevated vertical wind shear continue to suppress intensification, consistent with early-season activity limited to weak tropical storms. Category 5 landfalls remain rare even in active years, with the last U.S. occurrence in 2018, and current model consensus shows low probability of the sustained warm waters and low shear needed for such extreme strengthening before landfall.

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