Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 96% for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?". The market has traded $40.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Traders assign a 96% probability that China will not launch a military offensive to seize control of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable indicators such as large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained logistics buildup, or command signals for an invasion. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone operations, including air incursions, maritime patrols, and recent naval coordination exercises east of Taiwan framed around exclusive economic zone assertions. Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills, featuring expanded reservist participation and anti-blockade measures, alongside U.S. intelligence assessments noting no fixed timeline for force, reinforce deterrence. With months remaining, structural constraints on rapid projection limit feasibility. Late-year escalations during exercises or unforeseen external shocks remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus reflected in market pricing.

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