Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?
- ↓ 1.16
- 100%
- +1.0
- ↓ 1.14
- 100%
- +11.7
- ↓ 1.12
- 45%
- —
- ↓ 1.10
- 42%
- —
- ↑ 1.20
- 27%
- +2.0
- ↑ 1.22
- 20%
- −5.0
- ↑ 1.24
- 9%
- —
- ↓ 1.05
- 8%
- —
- ↑ 1.26
- 7%
- —
- ↑ 1.30
- 7%
- —
- ↓ 1.00
- 5%
- —
- ↑ 1.40
- 4%
- —
- ↑ 1.35
- 3%
- −2.8
Traders currently price "↓ 1.16" at 100% for "Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: ↓ 1.16 100%, ↓ 1.14 100%, ↓ 1.12 45%, ↓ 1.10 42%. The market has traded $89K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. EUR/USD has traded near 1.15–1.157 in mid-August 2026, buoyed by a softer dollar and expectations of further ECB tightening. Euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, prompting markets to price a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the September 10 meeting, while the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh shows reluctance for near-term increases amid sluggish U.S. employment data. Resilient Q2 eurozone growth of 0.4% and elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions are supporting the euro, though persistent geopolitical risks and divergent monetary policy paths between the ECB and Fed remain the dominant drivers of volatility and directional bias into year-end.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.