María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 24% for "María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 24%, September 30 12%, August 31 6%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $6.4M in total volume and resolves Jan 31, 2026. María Corina Machado remains in exile after secretly departing Venezuela in late 2025, with the ruling authorities maintaining her political disqualification and restricting airspace or flights to block reentry. Recent attempts in June 2026 to return amid major earthquakes were halted by airline refusals and government measures, following U.S. statements that such moves were counterproductive at the time. She has publicly committed to reentering before the end of 2026 to aid recovery efforts and pursue another presidential candidacy, while opposition coordination continues from Panama and other locations. Trader positioning reflects these regime controls, diplomatic frictions, and the absence of confirmed entry through mid-August 2026, alongside scheduled political milestones that could alter access conditions.

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