Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by August 31?

Traders currently price "↑$45B" at 68% for "Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by August 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 15.0 points. Full distribution: ↑$45B 68%, ↑$47.5B 43%, ↓$40B 42%, ↓$42.5B 34%. The market has traded $13K in total volume and resolves Sep 1, 2026. Neuralink’s secondary-market implied valuation has surged to the $29–42 billion range in recent months, roughly four to five times its $9–9.65 billion post-money valuation from the $650 million Series E round closed in mid-2025, reflecting heightened trader appetite for private shares amid expanded human trials across multiple countries, additional FDA Breakthrough Device designations, and broader enthusiasm for Elon Musk-linked assets following SpaceX’s public debut. With the company remaining pre-revenue and no new primary financing round scheduled, near-term movements hinge on secondary trading volume, incremental clinical updates, and any announcements on high-volume implant production targeted for 2026. The two-week window to August 31 leaves limited catalysts, keeping market-implied odds sensitive to the latest bid-ask spreads on platforms tracking employee and early-investor equity.

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