Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Traders currently price "June 30, 2027" at 38% for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: June 30, 2027 38%, December 31 6%, September 30 2%, July 15 0%. The market has traded $3.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Samuel Alito’s direct statements and the retracted June 2026 NPR retirement report are the dominant recent drivers of trader sentiment on any Polymarket tied to an announcement by a set date.** In an August 7 Wall Street Journal interview, the 76-year-old justice stated he is “here for another term,” cooling speculation that had built after erroneous reporting and earlier 2026 rumors linked to his age, a forthcoming book, and Republican Senate control during the current presidential term. Sources had already indicated in April that he did not plan to step down in 2026. The next Supreme Court term begins in October, with no scheduled confirmation process or vacancy trigger before then. Traders weigh these public signals against the possibility of later-term developments, such as health changes or shifts in Senate composition after the 2026 midterms, that could alter timing.

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