Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
- 30+
- 16%
- −8.0
- 40+
- 9%
- −5.0
- 50+
- 7%
- −2.5
- 60+
- 5%
- −0.5
- 80+
- 3%
- −0.7
- 100+
- 1%
- —
Traders currently price "30+" at 16% for "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 8.0 points. Full distribution: 30+ 16%, 40+ 9%, 50+ 7%, 60+ 5%. The market has traded $99K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Persistent US-Iran conflict since February 2026 has kept Strait of Hormuz transits at 5-13 vessels daily—roughly 90% below the pre-conflict norm of 60-130—driven by elevated war-risk insurance premiums, Iranian territorial assertions, and sporadic attacks that have deterred commercial operators. Oil flows remain constrained to a small fraction of the channel’s typical 20% share of global supply, supporting elevated benchmark crude prices and forcing drawdowns from strategic stockpiles. Recent data from Kpler and similar trackers show no material rebound as of mid-August, with fading prospects for a comprehensive peace deal limiting near-term normalization. Any surge before the August 31 resolution window would require either a swift diplomatic breakthrough or expanded naval escorts to materially shift aggregated trader pricing on volume thresholds.
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