Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2027" at 68% for "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2027 68%, June 30, 2027 54%, December 31, 2026 7%. The market has traded $874K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. The Doge-1 CubeSat, a crypto-funded lunar imaging and data mission developed by Geometric Energy Corporation, remains on track for a targeted mid-September 2026 liftoff aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare. Official project timelines and recent partner updates point to September 13–14 as the current window, following years of delays from its original 2022 concept and earlier 2024–2025 slots tied to Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C flights. Trader skepticism, reflected in low implied probabilities for any near-term resolution, stems from repeated schedule slips, Elon Musk’s February 2026 comments hinting at possible 2027 timing, and the inherent risks of secondary payloads on commercial launches. Key upcoming catalysts include final launch readiness reviews and any last-minute Falcon 9 manifest changes, which could quickly shift momentum in this high-uncertainty space endeavor.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.