Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Traders currently price "No" at 98% for "Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?". The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Sep 30, 2026. The 98% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests that were met with sustained security force crackdowns. Despite leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, economic strain from sanctions and conflict, and proxy setbacks, the regime’s multilayered security apparatus has maintained control without triggering elite defections or nationwide fragmentation sufficient for overthrow. Recent August 2026 developments, including appointments to the Supreme National Security Council and continued management of Strait of Hormuz negotiations amid tightened internal security, underscore continuity rather than dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation of hostilities, a decisive new protest wave exploiting economic grievances, or verifiable fractures within the Revolutionary Guards that erode coercive capacity before the resolution date.

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