Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 94% for "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?". The market has traded $24.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The Iranian regime's institutional resilience amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in initial February strikes, yet the Assembly of Experts swiftly installed Mojtaba Khamenei, preserving continuity and hardline control while security forces suppressed widespread protests sparked by economic strain and military setbacks. Recent August developments, including stalled Hormuz negotiations, renewed sanctions, and defiant IRGC positioning, show the regime absorbing leadership losses and proxy erosion without fracturing. These events reinforce historical patterns of survival under pressure, with no verified signs of imminent institutional breakdown or succession vacuum by end-2026.

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