Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 94% for "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?". The market has traded $745K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Trump has not signaled any intent to pardon Ghislaine Maxwell, and the political costs remain prohibitive.** Maxwell, convicted in 2021 of sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein, continues serving her 20-year sentence. In July 2026 the Senate unanimously passed a non-binding resolution—introduced by Sen. Jacky Rosen and supported without objection by Republicans—explicitly opposing any pardon or clemency for her crimes. Trump has repeatedly stated he has “not thought about” granting clemency, that no one has formally approached him, and that he would consult the Department of Justice, while acknowledging his constitutional authority but declining to rule it out. Maxwell’s counsel has publicly offered her testimony (including claims clearing Trump and others) in exchange for relief, and she has met with senior DOJ officials, yet these overtures have produced no visible movement toward action. The combination of bipartisan congressional opposition, victim advocacy, and the enduring association with the Epstein scandal creates strong disincentives for any president to act before the December 31, 2026 market resolution date. Traders therefore assign very low probability to a pardon occurring in the remaining months of the year.

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