Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 96% for "Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?". The market has traded $527K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Trump’s ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and continues through January 2029, underpins trader consensus that resignation by December 31, 2026, is highly improbable. Public statements from the president and senior administration officials emphasize commitment to completing the term, with no verified health, legal, or political developments indicating otherwise as of mid-August 2026. Speculative commentary from opposition figures about post-midterm fatigue has not altered market pricing, as historical patterns show incumbents rarely resign absent incapacity or overwhelming congressional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, successful impeachment proceedings with bipartisan support, or an unforeseen constitutional crisis, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.

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