Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 93% for "Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?". The market has traded $100K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Traders assign a 93% implied probability against the UAE leaving the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official withdrawal signals or procedural steps.** Despite the UAE’s April 2026 exit from OPEC amid disagreements with Saudi Arabia over production quotas and regional security priorities during the Iran conflict, Emirati officials have continued participating in GCC summits and joint initiatives. A senior official noted plans to scrutinize partnerships but ruled out additional departures, and the bloc affirmed a unified stance on collective defense and connectivity at the April Jeddah meeting. Ongoing economic integration, shared security concerns, and the lack of constitutional or diplomatic triggers for exit sustain the market’s strong consensus that membership will hold through the year.

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