Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Traders currently price "1m" at 100% for "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.2 points. Full distribution: 1m 100%, 1.1m 100%, 1.2m 56%, 1.3m 22%. The market has traded $182K in total volume and resolves Feb 28, 2027. Recent political shifts following the January 2026 capture of President Maduro and subsequent U.S. sanctions easing have driven Venezuelan crude output higher through expanded general licenses for PDVSA partners and renewed foreign investment. Production reached 1.2 million barrels per day in July 2026, up from roughly 0.9–1.1 million earlier in the year, supported by Chevron-led projects, well interventions, and $1.4 billion in planned capital spending. Market-implied odds reflect these developments alongside infrastructure constraints at upgraders and PDVSA operational challenges, with forecasts varying between flat output near 0.9 million and potential gains toward 1.3–1.4 million by year-end depending on sustained policy stability and oil-price incentives. Key catalysts ahead include further license expansions and OPEC+ dynamics affecting heavy-sour crude flows.

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