Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Traders currently price "Crowley wins" at 99% for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.8 points. Full distribution: Crowley wins 99%, Other 50%, Hong 25–30% 1%, Hong 30%+ 0%. The market has traded $211K in total volume and resolves Aug 11, 2026. David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary with a narrow 0.48-point victory over state Representative Francesca Hong. Multiple candidates, including former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, withdrew in the final weeks, consolidating support around the Milwaukee County executive as a moderate alternative. Late endorsements from Gov. Tony Evers and establishment figures, combined with voter concerns over electability against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany, shifted momentum in the closing days despite earlier polling showing Hong ahead by double digits. The race featured significant early and absentee ballots cast before withdrawals, limiting voter adjustments. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed results and procedural factors, though any remaining vote certification or recount could still influence final margins.

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