Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 96% for "Xi Jinping out before 2027?". The market has traded $12.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Xi Jinping's consolidated control over the Communist Party, military, and state institutions underpins the overwhelming trader consensus that he will remain in power through 2027. With no designated successor and the 21st Party Congress slated for autumn 2027 as the next formal leadership juncture, structural barriers limit abrupt transitions. Recent developments, including Xi's active role in advancing the 15th Five-Year Plan and ongoing anti-corruption efforts within the PLA, reinforce perceptions of unchallenged authority. While probabilities above 90% acknowledge this stability, low-probability shifts could still arise from health developments, elite realignments, or unforeseen policy crises that alter internal dynamics before the congress.

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