AI bubble burst by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 28% for "AI bubble burst by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 9.4 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 28%, March 31, 2026 0%, December 31, 2025 0%. The market has traded $2.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Massive capital expenditures on AI infrastructure—projected to reach trillions by 2030—continue to outpace revenues at leading labs, with OpenAI and Anthropic reporting annualized figures around $25 billion and $19 billion amid ongoing losses through at least 2028. Trader sentiment reflects this gap, reinforced by May 2026 warnings from Michael Burry and earlier cautions from Bill Gurley comparing conditions to late-stage dot-com dynamics, alongside a February NBER study showing minimal real-world productivity impact despite executive optimism. Recent June 2026 model releases, including Microsoft’s MAI-Code-1-Flash and reasoning models plus Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, highlight ongoing capability gains and competitive moves to reduce reliance on partners like OpenAI, yet these have not shifted consensus on near-term monetization. Upcoming earnings and developer conferences could clarify adoption trends or expose further spending-revenue mismatches.

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