OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Traders currently price "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 82% for "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap". Full distribution: No IPO by December 31, 2026 82%, 1T–1.25T 7%, 750B–1T 4%, 1.5T+ 2%. The market has traded $2.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.

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