Anthropic IPO by __?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 71% for "Anthropic IPO by __?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 71%, October 31, 2026 36%, September 30, 2026 6%, September 15, 2026 1%. The market has traded $856K in total volume and resolves Jul 1, 2027. Anthropic's June 1, 2026 confidential SEC filing has shifted trader focus toward a potential late-2026 listing, with analysts pointing to a fall debut contingent on market conditions and review timelines. Recent $65 billion funding at a $965 billion valuation underscores robust demand for AI exposure, yet gross-versus-net revenue recognition and novel AI-safety disclosures introduce comment-letter risks that could extend the process. Competing filings from OpenAI and SpaceX's oversubscribed IPO highlight crowded equity calendars, while Treasury yields and risk appetite will influence pricing windows. Key catalysts ahead include any public S-1 release and FOMC signals on rates.

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