POLITICSLIVE

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon95%

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 95%; —
Nathalie Arthaud: 90%; +0.5
Marine Le Pen: 86%; —
Fabien Roussel: 82%; —
Édouard Philippe: 81%; −1.0
Bruno Retailleau: 75%; —
Éric Zemmour: 57%; +4.0
David Lisnard: 56%; −1.0
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 55%; −1.5
Raphaël Glucksmann: 51%; −4.5
Sarah Knafo: 38%; −2.0
Gabriel Attal: 37%; −1.5
François Ruffin: 34%; —
François Hollande: 32%; —
Marine Tondelier: 32%; +0.5
Dominique de Villepin: 28%; +1.5
Xavier Bertrand: 18%; —
Bernard Cazeneuve: 15%; +2.0
Jordan Bardella: 14%; —
François Asselineau: 13%; −0.5
Juan Branco: 12%; —
Jérôme Guedj: 11%; −0.5
Matthieu Pigasse: 10%; —
Sébastien Lecornu: 9%; —
Manuel Bompard: 8%; —
Philippe de Villiers: 8%; —
Olivier Faure: 7%; —
Michel-Edouard Leclerc: 7%; —
Gérald Darmanin: 7%; —
Ségolène Royal: 7%; —
François Bayrou: 6%; −1.1
Jean-Michel Fauvergue: 6%; —
Karim Bouamrane: 6%; —
Manuel Valls: 5%; —
Jean Castex: 4%; —
Bally Bagayoko: 4%; —
Clémentine Autain: 3%; —
Teddy Riner: 3%; —
Carole Delga: 3%; —
Yaël Braun-Pivet: 3%; —
Laurent Wauquiez: 3%; —
Delphine Batho: 3%; —
Valérie Pécresse: 3%; —
Élisabeth Borne: 2%; —
Michel Barnier: 2%; —
Mathilde Panot: 2%; —

VOLUME

$284K

24H VOLUME

$2K

LIQUIDITY

$319K

RESOLVES

Apr 17, 2027

Traders currently price "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 95% for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?". Full distribution: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 95%, Nathalie Arthaud 90%, Marine Le Pen 86%, Fabien Roussel 82%. The market has traded $284K in total volume and resolves Apr 17, 2027. Marine Le Pen's July 2026 court ruling shortening her ineligibility period enabled her presidential candidacy announcement, strengthening National Rally's position as the polling frontrunner for the April 2027 first round. With Emmanuel Macron term-limited, declared contenders including Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left, Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe in the center, and Bruno Retailleau for The Republicans have fragmented opposition votes. A record field of over 30 potential candidates heightens first-round volatility under the two-round system, while upcoming party selections and any further appeals could shift alliances or ballot access before the May runoff. Trader sentiment reflects these dynamics through the wisdom of crowds assessing National Rally's path versus coalition-building challenges for rivals.

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