Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Lula da Silva 5-10%
- 38%
- +0.5
- Lula da Silva 10-15%
- 32%
- +0.5
- Lula da Silva <5%
- 16%
- −0.5
- Lula da Silva 15%+
- 8%
- —
- Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
- 7%
- —
- Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
- 5%
- +1.3
- Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
- 4%
- −0.8
- Other
- 1%
- —
- Renan Santos Victory
- 1%
- —
- Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
- 0%
- —
- Ratinho Júnior Victory
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Lula da Silva 5-10%" at 38% for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: Lula da Silva 5-10% 38%, Lula da Silva 10-15% 32%, Lula da Silva <5% 16%, Lula da Silva 15%+ 8%. The market has traded $316K in total volume and resolves Oct 4, 2026. Recent August 2026 polls from firms including MDA, Nexus, PoderData, and Futura place Lula da Silva at 38-44% in first-round voting intentions, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%, with the remainder fragmented among Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others. This positioning underpins trader consensus around a 5-15 point Lula margin. Lula’s support has held steady amid expanded debt-relief programs and temporary fuel subsidies, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s standing was dented by June audio leaks and a publicized family dispute before partial recovery. Narrowing gaps in second-round simulations and 10-14% undecided shares keep the first-round spread contested. The October 4 vote and scheduled late-August debates remain the next potential catalysts for margin shifts.
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