Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Traders currently price "↑ 1510" at 100% for "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 14.4 points. Full distribution: ↑ 1510 100%, ↑ 1500 100%, ↑ 1520 66%, ↑ 1530 28%. The market has traded $141K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent releases from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 in late July) and xAI (Grok-4.6 in early August) have driven leading Overall Arena Elo scores to the 1507–1511 range on LMSYS and arena.ai leaderboards, with Claude variants frequently topping blind human preference rankings. These gains stem from advances in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities amid intense competition among OpenAI, Google, Meta, and xAI, though progress remains incremental as models approach evaluation saturation. Trader sentiment for higher year-end thresholds factors in expected Q4 launches and historical patterns of rapid iteration, balanced against risks of plateaus or delayed capability jumps before December 31.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.