Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

Traders currently price "Binface 20–30%" at 100% for "Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 62.4 points. Full distribution: Binface 20–30% 100%, Binface 30–40% 0%, Binface <10% 0%, Binface 10–20% 0%. The market has traded $542K in total volume and resolves Aug 13, 2026. Major party boycotts in the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election left Count Binface as the clearest challenger to Nigel Farage, whose Reform UK candidacy followed an investigation into undeclared donations. Pre-election polling placed Binface near 20 percent in a two-way contest, while his active local campaigning and novelty profile boosted visibility without major-party competition. This setup produced a trader consensus around the 20–30 percent outcome band, consistent with his career-high 9,455 votes and 26.9 percent share on 44.4 percent turnout. Late swings in protest voting or turnout spikes among Farage supporters remain the primary variables that could still shift final certified figures.

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