Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

This market has settled: "Farage 20-40%" was the outcome, priced at 100% at close. Full distribution: Farage 20-40% 100%, Farage 60%+ 0%, Farage 40-60% 0%, Farage <20% 0%. The market has traded $269K in total volume and resolved Aug 13, 2026. Farage secured a commanding position in the Clacton by-election margin market due to his established Reform UK base in the constituency since the 2024 general election, combined with a boycott by major parties that left only fringe and novelty candidates on the ballot. Official results showed him taking 63.3% of the vote against Count Binface's 26.9%, producing a margin of roughly 36 points amid 44% turnout and a record number of minor contenders. This outcome aligned with pre-poll trader consensus reflecting localized support and limited organized opposition. Late adjustments to the certified tally or successful legal challenges to the count remain the only realistic paths that could shift the result outside the 20-40% band, though the scale of the lead makes such scenarios improbable.

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