Clacton by-election Winner
- Nigel Farage
- 100%
- +0.8
- Person E
- 50%
- —
- Person F
- 50%
- —
- Person G
- 50%
- —
- Person H
- 50%
- —
- Person I
- 50%
- —
- Person J
- 50%
- —
- Person K
- 50%
- —
- Person L
- 50%
- —
- Person M
- 50%
- —
- Person N
- 50%
- —
- Person O
- 50%
- —
- Person P
- 50%
- —
- Person Q
- 50%
- —
- Person R
- 50%
- —
- Person S
- 50%
- —
- Person T
- 50%
- —
- Person U
- 50%
- —
- Person V
- 50%
- —
- Person W
- 50%
- —
- Person X
- 50%
- —
- Person Y
- 50%
- —
- Person Z
- 50%
- —
- Person AA
- 50%
- —
- Person AB
- 50%
- —
- Person AC
- 50%
- —
- Person AD
- 50%
- —
- Person AE
- 50%
- —
- Person AF
- 50%
- —
- Person AG
- 50%
- —
- Person AH
- 50%
- —
- Person AI
- 50%
- —
- Person AJ
- 50%
- —
- Person AK
- 50%
- —
- Person AL
- 50%
- —
- Person AM
- 50%
- —
- Person AN
- 50%
- —
- Person AO
- 50%
- —
- Person AP
- 50%
- —
- Person AQ
- 50%
- —
- Person AR
- 50%
- —
- Other
- 50%
- —
- Giles Watling
- 0%
- —
- Jovan Owusu-Nepaul
- 0%
- —
- Matthew Bensilum
- 0%
- —
- Natasha Osben
- 0%
- —
- Tony Mack
- 0%
- —
- Andrew Pemberton
- 0%
- —
- Count Binface
- 0%
- −0.9
- William Clouston
- 0%
- —
- John Stevens
- 0%
- —
- Pamela Walford
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Nigel Farage" at 100% for "Clacton by-election Winner". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.8 points. Full distribution: Nigel Farage 100%, Person E 50%, Person F 50%, Person G 50%. The market has traded $5.7M in total volume and resolves Aug 13, 2026. Nigel Farage secured a decisive victory in the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, which he triggered by resigning his seat to seek a fresh mandate amid ongoing parliamentary standards scrutiny. Reform UK’s local base, combined with the boycott by major Westminster parties and a crowded field of over 30 candidates including novelty entrants, produced a 63.3% share for Farage on 44.4% turnout. Trader pricing at 100% for Farage reflects confirmed vote tallies showing him well ahead of the nearest challenger. Late procedural challenges, recount disputes, or eligibility rulings remain the only realistic paths that could alter the declared outcome before formal certification.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.