Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
- Pause–Pause–Pause
- 83%
- −10.1
- Other
- 17%
- +10.2
- Pause–Pause–Cut
- 1%
- —
- Cut–Pause–Pause
- 0%
- −0.5
- Cut–Pause–Cut
- 0%
- —
- Cut–Cut–Pause
- 0%
- —
- Cut–Cut–Cut
- 0%
- —
- Pause–Cut–Pause
- 0%
- −1.1
- Pause–Cut–Cut
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Pause–Pause–Pause" at 83% for "Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 10.1 points. Full distribution: Pause–Pause–Pause 83%, Other 17%, Pause–Pause–Cut 1%, Cut–Pause–Pause 0%. The market has traded $802K in total volume and resolves Jul 29, 2026. Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
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