French election called by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 10% for "French election called by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 10%, July 31, 2026 0%, December 31, 2025 0%, September 15 0%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. France's ongoing political instability stems from the 2024 snap legislative elections, which produced a hung National Assembly and a series of short-lived minority governments that collapsed under no-confidence votes. President Macron retains sole constitutional authority to dissolve the assembly and call new elections after the required waiting period, creating the core driver of trader expectations around the timing and initiator of any early vote before the scheduled 2029 deadline. Persistent legislative gridlock, coalition negotiations, and polling shifts have sustained speculation of dissolution ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, with market resolution hinging on official announcement of an election date.

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