Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Traders currently price "September 30" at 20% for "Gemini 4.0 released by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 3.0 points. Full distribution: September 30 20%, August 31 1%, July 31 0%, June 30 0%. The market has traded $201K in total volume and resolves Jul 31, 2026. Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training for Gemini 4—the company’s most ambitious run yet—had begun, following the Gemini 3.6 Flash release and amid delays for Gemini 3.5 Pro. This positions the model as Google’s next major frontier large language model, designed to compete with peers through a significantly larger base architecture and improved agentic capabilities. Pre-training timelines typically span 3–5 months, with post-training, safety evaluations, and integration adding further steps, supporting market speculation around late 2026 or early 2027 availability. Key upcoming catalysts include Alphabet earnings updates and potential reveals at developer events, though Google has issued no official release window or benchmarks. Leadership transitions could introduce additional execution variables.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.