GPT-6 released by…?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 84% for "GPT-6 released by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 84%, September 30, 2026 42%, August 31, 2026 10%, August 21, 2026 2%. The market has traded $1.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.6 family launch in July 2026, following the April GPT-5.5 release of the previously anticipated “Spud” model, has pushed genuine generational expectations for GPT-6 later. The August 1 naming of the next major family as “Astra” without any release window or pricing reinforces that OpenAI is spacing major pre-training runs further apart while shipping iterative improvements. Traders are weighing safety evaluations, infrastructure scaling at facilities like Stargate, and competitive pressure from labs such as Anthropic against historical cadence—roughly annual jumps between numbered frontier models. No confirmed architecture details, benchmarks, or launch timeline exist yet, leaving implied probabilities sensitive to any new Altman statements or leaked training completion dates in the coming months.

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