POLITICSLIVE

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

July 24100%▲ 82.5pt 24h

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

July 24: 100%; +82.5
August 4: 100%; +39.5
August 11: 100%; +1.8
August 25: 12%; +6.0
August 30: 11%; +0.5
August 28: 10%; +1.0
August 22: 9%; −25.5
August 19: 8%; +1.0
August 31: 8%; —
August 15: 7%; +1.1
August 20: 7%; +1.0
August 23: 7%; −0.5
August 26: 7%; —
August 29: 6%; —
August 16: 6%; −2.0
August 21: 6%; +1.3
August 17: 6%; +1.7
August 24: 5%; —
August 14: 5%; −1.7
August 27: 5%; −1.0
August 18: 5%; −2.5
August 12: 1%; —
August 13: 1%; −2.8
July 25: 0%; −0.8
July 26: 0%; −1.9
July 27: 0%; —
July 28: 0%; −6.5
July 29: 0%; −0.8
July 30: 0%; −1.5
July 31: 0%; −0.5
August 1: 0%; —
August 2: 0%; −0.9
August 3: 0%; −1.1
August 5: 0%; —
August 6: 0%; —
August 7: 0%; −1.5
August 8: 0%; —
August 9: 0%; −0.9
August 10: 0%; −1.3

VOLUME

$229K

24H VOLUME

$4K

LIQUIDITY

$230K

RESOLVES

Aug 31, 2026

Traders currently price "July 24" at 100% for "Houthis successfully target shipping on...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 82.5 points. Full distribution: July 24 100%, August 4 100%, August 11 100%, August 25 12%. The market has traded $229K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Recent Houthi attacks, including the August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that killed six, have heightened risks to Red Sea transits following the group's July blockade on Saudi-linked shipping. These developments elevate hull insurance premiums and war-risk surcharges while prompting rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, which lengthens voyages, raises fuel and charter costs, and pressures global supply chains. Saudi crude export volumes face potential constraints, supporting upward pressure on Brent crude benchmarks and related energy futures. Trader sentiment on such markets reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of escalation tied to regional tensions, with key catalysts including any further strikes, naval responses, or shifts in maritime traffic data through the strait.

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