How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

Traders currently price "8" at 62% for "How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.1 points. Full distribution: 8 62%, 9 32%, 10 3%, 11 1%. The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **US military operations in 2026 have centered on a major escalation against Iran and targeted actions in several other countries amid counterterrorism, counternarcotics, and regional proxy dynamics.** Joint US-Israeli strikes beginning February 28 triggered the 2026 Iran war, with repeated rounds of US airstrikes and missile attacks on Iranian military targets, leadership sites, missile facilities, and naval assets continuing into July amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz. Separate early-2026 operations captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro through direct US intervention in Caracas. Additional strikes have targeted Houthi forces in Yemen, ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and al-Shabaab in Somalia. These developments, combined with ongoing Middle East tensions involving Iranian proxies and sustained counterterrorism campaigns, have shaped trader consensus around eight or nine countries by year-end. Further expansion could occur through additional proxy engagements or new theaters, while de-escalation or narrower targeting would limit the total. Resolution depends on actions through December 31.

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