Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Traders currently price "No" at 86% for " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?". The market has traded $1.6M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Iran’s insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment as a non-negotiable red line remains the dominant factor behind the 85.5% implied probability that it will not agree to end the activity by December 31. The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding ended active conflict and launched a 60-day window for nuclear talks, yet it only committed both sides to discuss enrichment while preserving the current status quo of Iran’s program. Subsequent August 2026 reporting on Hormuz transit talks and related diplomacy shows slow progress amid Iranian internal divisions, demands for U.S. concessions, and continued emphasis on verification and stockpile issues rather than a full halt. Historical patterns from prior negotiations further underscore the difficulty of securing complete cessation within the remaining timeline.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.