Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 8% for "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?". Full distribution: December 31 8%, October 31 3%, August 31 0%, May 31 0%. The market has traded $17.8M in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. US-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 Islamabad memorandum of understanding center on resolving Iran's stockpiled enriched uranium, with the interim accord calling for disposition of the material—minimum down-blending on site under IAEA supervision—within a 60-day window for a final deal. Technical talks have continued on inspection access to damaged sites, verification of the roughly 440 kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium, and related enrichment limits, though disputes persist over timelines, removal versus dilution in place, and Iranian compliance with status-quo commitments. Satellite reports of reconstruction activity at nuclear facilities and ongoing regional tensions over sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz add uncertainty to whether a surrender or equivalent neutralization agreement materializes.

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