Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 14% for "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 14%, October 31 9%, August 31 4%, July 31 1%. The market has traded $17.2M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations following 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities center on the roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, with Washington pressing for its dilution, removal, or destruction under IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief. Iranian officials, including the foreign minister, have described the issue as postponed or a red line, citing a Supreme Leader directive against export, while US statements indicate in-principle agreement to address disposal in follow-on talks. A framework agreement is slated for finalization around June 20, 2026, with a subsequent 60-day period to resolve nuclear details that could extend, potentially incorporating third-country options such as transfer to China. These diplomatic timelines and verification mechanisms directly shape trader assessments of when any formal commitment on the stockpile might occur.

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