Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 50% for "Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 50%, October 31 37%, September 30 18%, August 31 11%. The market has traded $2.1M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Iran's push to charge service or environmental fees for Strait of Hormuz transit faces sustained opposition from the United States and Gulf states, keeping near-term implementation probabilities low in trader assessments. Following the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum that provided 60 days of charge-free passage, Oman advanced a July proposal for voluntary fees under joint management, which Iran has not accepted. Tehran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and floated service charges estimated at billions annually, yet no mandatory system has taken effect amid US sanctions warnings and statements rejecting tolls. Ongoing diplomatic talks and the risk of renewed restrictions continue to shape consensus around delayed or limited outcomes.

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