Iran coup attempt by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 12% for "Iran coup attempt by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. The market has traded $2.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. **Iran's post-war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on coup risks through late 2026.** Following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime swiftly installed his son Mojtaba as successor via the Assembly of Experts, signaling continuity despite economic pressures, suppressed protests from late 2025 into early 2026, and a fragile ceasefire. In July 2026, hardliners publicly accused President Pezeshkian and allies like Ghalibaf of sidelining parliament and plotting against Mojtaba amid US truce talks and Strait of Hormuz negotiations, though these claims remain unverified rhetoric without evidence of an organized attempt. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, military cohesion, and institutional mechanisms for succession amid ongoing diplomatic brinkmanship.

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