Iran leader end of 2026?
- Mojtaba Khamenei
- 83%
- —
- No Head of State
- 4%
- —
- Reza Pahlavi
- 3%
- —
- Alireza Arafi
- 2%
- —
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
- 2%
- —
- Ahmad Vahidi
- 1%
- —
- Hassan Rouhani
- 1%
- —
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
- 1%
- —
- Hassan Khomeini
- 1%
- —
- Masoud Pezeshkian
- 1%
- —
- Abbas Araghchi
- 0%
- —
- Muhammad Mirbaqiri
- 0%
- —
- Sadegh Larijani
- 0%
- —
- Hassan Shariatmadari
- 0%
- —
- Maryam Rajavi
- 0%
- —
- Massoud Rajavi
- 0%
- —
- Seyed Hossein Mousavian
- 0%
- —
- Reza Pirzadeh
- 0%
- —
- Navid Shomali
- 0%
- —
- Mustafa Hijri
- 0%
- —
- Ali Motahari
- 0%
- —
- Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
- 0%
- —
- Mostafa Pourmohammadi
- 0%
- —
- Sadegh Mahsouli
- 0%
- —
- Saeed Jalili
- 0%
- —
- Mohammad Khatami
- 0%
- —
- Mohsen Araki
- 0%
- —
- Nasir Hosseini
- 0%
- —
- Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
- 0%
- —
- Ali Asghar Hejazi
- 0%
- —
- Mohammad Pakpour
- 0%
- —
- Ali Larijani
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 83% for "Iran leader end of 2026?". Full distribution: Mojtaba Khamenei 83%, No Head of State 4%, Reza Pahlavi 3%, Alireza Arafi 2%. The market has traded $38.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead due to his March 2026 selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader, following the February assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid U.S.-Israel strikes. The rapid transition, backed by Revolutionary Guard influence and clerical consensus, established him as incumbent well before year-end. Limited public appearances and reports of possible injuries have prompted some internal questions about continuity, yet no formal challenges or alternative frontrunners have gained traction in the months since. Traders price in low near-term disruption risk through December 2026, consistent with historical patterns of leadership stability once the Assembly of Experts confirms a successor.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.