Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 11% for "Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 11%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $2.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. US-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resumed in Paris in January 2026, producing a communication mechanism for intelligence sharing and de-escalation that revives elements of the 1974 disengagement agreement. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has repeatedly signaled interest in security arrangements or non-aggression pacts, including in a July 2026 interview, while insisting on Israeli withdrawals from post-2024 buffer zones and rejecting any concessions on the Golan Heights. Negotiations have since stalled amid gaps over sovereignty, security guarantees, and Iranian influence, with both sides favoring limited deconfliction over full diplomatic normalization or Abraham Accords-style ties. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers and the absence of breakthroughs in recent months, though scheduled diplomatic engagements or shifts in US policy could still influence timelines through year-end.

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