Israel closes its airspace by...?
- August 31
- 6%
- −1.0
- August 15
- 1%
- —
- May 8
- 0%
- −1.4
- May 31
- 0%
- −1.2
- June 30
- 0%
- —
- May 24
- 0%
- −3.0
- June 15
- 0%
- −1.1
- June 8
- 0%
- −36.4
- June 9
- 0%
- −1.1
- June 10
- 0%
- −2.5
- June 11
- 0%
- −3.8
- June 12
- 0%
- −1.4
- June 13
- 0%
- −0.9
- June 14
- 0%
- −0.5
- July 15
- 0%
- −0.8
- July 31
- 0%
- −1.5
- July 7
- 0%
- —
- July 24
- 0%
- −8.0
Traders currently price "August 31" at 6% for "Israel closes its airspace by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: August 31 6%, August 15 1%, May 8 0%, May 31 0%. The market has traded $27.0M in total volume and resolves May 31, 2026. Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026, coupled with renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and proxy threats from Hezbollah and Houthi forces, continue to shape trader views on the likelihood of another Israeli airspace closure. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred earlier in 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with brief additional halts in June following interceptions of attacks from Yemen. As of mid-August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civil operations, though EASA advisories through August 31 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions from potential strikes. Low market probabilities for near-term dates reflect this pattern of episodic rather than sustained closures amid diplomatic and military uncertainty.
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