Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 17% for "Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 17%, August 31 1%, June 30 0%, July 31 0%. The market has traded $1.7M in total volume and resolves May 31, 2026. Ongoing US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites since February 2026 have driven trader consensus against an Israeli ground operation in Iran, with actions limited to air and missile campaigns plus Israeli ground advances in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. Recent developments include Iran's rapid reconstitution of ballistic missile capabilities reported in mid-August, stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz after July clashes, and US statements emphasizing de-escalation without committing troops to Iranian soil. Diplomatic channels and high costs of occupation remain key barriers, while any future confirmation would likely require verifiable IDF statements or cross-border troop movements amid broader regional tensions.

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