Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 39% for "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 39%, July 31 0%, October 31 0%, December 31 0%. The market has traded $2.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Negotiations over implementing Phase II of the US-brokered Israel-Hamas ceasefire remain stalled, with the most recent development being Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's early August 2026 rejection of a US roadmap that Hamas had accepted. Phase II centers on Hamas disarmament or weapons storage, Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, establishment of a technocratic Palestinian administration under the Board of Peace, and reconstruction efforts. Core disputes persist over sequencing these steps, verification mechanisms, and security guarantees, despite mediation by Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and US envoys. A fragile Phase I ceasefire has held since October 2025 with limited incidents, but progress on the second phase requires alignment on governance and demilitarization before any full withdrawal or aid surge can advance. Traders monitor upcoming diplomatic meetings and any shifts in Israeli cabinet positions for signs of movement.

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